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Prediction for CME (2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-06T02:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29000/-1
CME Note: Source of this partial halo CME is an M2.2 class flare from AR 3575 (S34W65) peaked at 2024-02-06T02:28Z and followed by an M4.2 class flare. The flare was associated with a large eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304/171/131 and STEREO EUVI 195 starting at 2024-02-06T02:13Z (ejecta, EUV wave, post-eruptive arcades and circular dimming around them and rising). | Arrival note: Amplification in magnetic field components, with gradual enhancement starting around 2024-02-09T17:30Z, and shock observed starting at 2024-02-09T21:40, with B_total increasing from 7nT to approx. 9.37 nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from approx. 387 km/s to approx. 500 km/s and increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-09T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-09T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29004/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=48.0, Lat.=-45.0, Speed=857.0, HalfAngle=52.0, Time21.5=2024-02-06T06:32Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-09T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-08T06:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-09T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_063200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 79.85 hour(s)
Difference: 13.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-02-06T13:49Z

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